Heretic Research — Question Consensus.

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Truth stands apart from consensus.

更好的问题,带我们走向全新的地图 ●

Better questions reveal new maps ●

Heretic Research 是专注于 Crypto 与 AI 交叉领域的独立研究机构。我们挖掘人声鼎沸之下的真实数据,并据此深度研究。我们独立于任何市场叙事。

An independent research house at the intersection of crypto and AI. We dig for the real data beneath the noise and build our research on it. We stand apart from any market narrative.

↓ LATEST RESEARCH

Prediction-Market Prospectors

从争夺交易入口,到争夺结果定义权

From Competing for Trading Access to Competing for the Power to Define Outcomes

2026 · 08 Crypto × 预测市场 CRYPTO × PREDICTION MARKETS

ISSUE 03 · COVER HERETIC RESEARCH

TL;DR

预测市场前端正在变得拥挤,下一轮增量可能来自后台基础设施。 平台竞争已经集中到流量、牌照和流动性;但每个新增市场仍需要解释规则、验证证据、确认结果并完成支付。这些重复建设的能力,正在具备被标准化并服务多个平台的条件。
规则和结算的不确定性,正在创造 Alpha。 HR 的回归模型显示,0.487% 的争议市场承载了 8.64% 的成交,跨平台相似合约仍存在持续价差;但浅盘口和执行成本限制了可投入资金。更可扩张的机会,是把规则比较、证据验证、结果确认和支付触发做成可重复调用的产品。
结果层已进入商业化。当前可观察年收入约为 1,500 万—3,700 万美元;若覆盖现有全部市场,对应约 6,400 万—1.61 亿美元;当变现率达到成熟项目水平,产业年收入上限约为 4.56 亿美元。
产业机会正在形成,结果层仍处在最适合提前研究和埋伏的阶段。平台股权已经计入较高的前端增长预期,HYPE 和 ICE 对结果层的价值承接仍然有限;真正值得跟踪的,是哪些早期项目开始获得跨平台调用,并把调用转化为可归属、可续费的收入。理想标的尚未完全成形,也意味着这部分产业价值还没有被充分定价。

The prediction-market front end is getting crowded. The next wave of growth may come from back-end infrastructure. Platform competition has converged on traffic, licenses, and liquidity. Yet every new market still requires someone to interpret the rules, verify the evidence, confirm the outcome, and trigger payment. These repeatedly rebuilt capabilities are becoming suitable for standardization and reuse across platforms.
Uncertainty in rules and settlement is creating alpha. HR's regression model shows that the 0.487% of markets that entered dispute accounted for 8.64% of trading volume, while similar contracts across platforms continue to exhibit persistent price gaps. Shallow order books and execution costs, however, constrain deployable capital. The more scalable opportunity is to turn rule comparison, evidence verification, outcome confirmation, and payment triggering into products that can be called repeatedly.
The outcome layer has entered commercialization. Currently observable annual revenue is approximately $15 million-$37 million. Covering the entire existing market would imply roughly $64 million-$161 million, while monetization at the level of mature projects would put the industry's upper annual-revenue bound at about $456 million.
An industry opportunity is taking shape, and the outcome layer remains at the stage best suited to early research and positioning. Platform equity already prices in substantial front-end growth, while HYPE and ICE still provide limited capture of outcome-layer value. The real signal to track is which early-stage projects begin winning cross-platform calls and converting those calls into attributable, renewable revenue. The ideal investable asset has not fully formed—which also means this layer of industry value has not yet been fully priced.

ISSUE 02 2026 · 06 类美股 IPO × 链上结构拆解 SUPER-UNICORN IPO × ON-CHAIN

SpaceX 与超级缝合怪

SpaceX and the Super Chimera

crypto 交易所围绕 SpaceX 造出三层结构;6 月 12 日证明价格发现渗透成立、一级配售集体零配额。

Crypto exchanges built three structural layers around SpaceX; June 12 proved price-discovery penetration is real, while primary allocation collapsed into collective zero allocation.

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